This alert expired on 4 September 2026 at 20:30 UTC. It is kept here as a record.
It is the 2nd strongest of the 205 detections recorded within 20 km of this point since 12 June 2026. The last comparable one was on 3 September 2026.
What the source measured
NOAA reported: Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued September 4 at 3:59PM EDT until September 4 at 4:30PM EDT by NWS Blacksburg VA
An estimated 98,445 people live within 50 km of this point.
Nearby, since 12 June 2026
- September 2, 2026 · score 49 · 4.6 km
- September 5, 2026 · score 37 · 13.9 km
- August 27, 2026 · score 39 · 14.3 km
How we know
Confirmed by 2 independent sources, including NOAA.
Our own score for this event is 45 out of 100, at 85 % confidence.
The score is ours, computed from intensity, exposed population and local history — not the source’s.
Computed under scoring rules v4. Rows carrying other versions were judged by different rules and are not directly comparable.
Event Data
| Type | Severe Weather |
| Severity | High |
| Calamity Score (ours) | 45 / 100 |
| Our confidence | 85% |
| Coordinates | 38.3209, -78.9169 |
| Nearest City | Harrisonburg (15 km) |
| Population Exposed | 98.4K within 50 km |
| Impact Tier | severe |
| Timestamp | 2026-09-04T19:59:00.000Z |
| Source | https://api.weather.gov/alerts/urn%3Aoid%3A2.49.0.1.840.0.4d435661c53228293e81b011f56b5b986ef6af2c.001.1 |
Score Breakdown
Technical Details
| Event | Severe Thunderstorm Warning |
| Urgency | Immediate |
| Certainty | Observed |
| AreaDesc | Amherst, VA; Appomattox, VA; Campbell, VA; City of Lynchburg, VA; Orange, VA; Orange, VA; Spotsylvania, VA and 4 more areas |
| Headline | Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued September 4 at 3:59PM EDT until September 4 at 4:30PM EDT by NWS Blacksburg VA |
| Expires | 2026-09-04T16:30:00-04:00 |
| SenderName | NWS Blacksburg VA |
| HasExactCoords | true |
| MergedCount | 7 |
| MergedIds | ["noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.4d435661c53228293e81b011f56b5b986ef6af2c.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.334a54c3c49c1996d095c7d8f0c56d1f5dc4444d.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.0bb26e5d9b850f7ca0fecbcfe63c807875a7e68e.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.e0ddbaa3610b68507003f7947ece94bbc5ece3da.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.cdfe633471281be80ee5b20c1f83e1850f25f3bf.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.7c99d925d79fe7973a507317dd5bdf7541178303.002.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.0502b90b8fff9bb6b63381a7349fb2c74c05ed82.001.1"] |
| Spc ReportType | hail |
| Spc Speed | 150 |
| Spc Location | 2 ESE Oakpark |
| Spc County | Madison |
| Spc State | VA |
| Spc Comments | Ping pong ball size hail in the 8000 block of Oak Park Rd (LWX) |
| MergedSources | [{"id":"spc_wind_38.67_-78.48_18","source":"spc","severity":"medium","severityValue":45,"timestamp":1788545100000,"latitude":38.67,"longitude":-78.48},{"id":"spc_wind_38.49_-78.14_38","source":"spc","severity":"medium","severityValue":45,"timestamp":1788548640000,"latitude":38.49,"longitude":-78.14},{"id":"spc_wind_38.45_-78.19_39","source":"spc","severity":"medium","severityValue":45,"timestamp":1788548940000,"latitude":38.45,"longitude":-78.19},{"id":"spc_wind_38.39_-78.12_42","source":"spc","severity":"medium","severityValue":45,"timestamp":1788549540000,"latitude":38.39,"longitude":-78.12},{"id":"spc_hail_38.67_-78.48_45","source":"spc","severity":"high","severityValue":65,"timestamp":1788545100000,"latitude":38.67,"longitude":-78.48},{"id":"spc_hail_38.36_-78.14_46","source":"spc","severity":"high","severityValue":65,"timestamp":1788549960000,"latitude":38.36,"longitude":-78.14}] |
Safety Information
Always follow official guidance from your local emergency management agency. This platform provides scientific monitoring data and is not a substitute for official warnings. If you are in immediate danger, contact your local emergency number.
Series begins 8 March 2026. Comparisons refer to that period only. Collection gap: 14-26 August 2026.
This data is aggregated algorithmically from scientific sources. Not a replacement for official emergency warnings.
Want to know when something happens near Harrisonburg?
Calamity.live data shows a weather event with CalamityScore 45/100, near Harrisonburg (United States), based on data from noaa. Source: Calamity.live, a platform aggregating real-time data from 185 scientific monitoring sources.